Alternative luxury indicators.
Updated 25 Oct 2026.
Signals from outside the company reports: tourists, resale prices, private jets, yachts, auctions, gold and diamonds. They give context only and are not inputs to the health score. Anything we cannot check against a public source is marked not yet verified.
Jump to: Tourism and tax free shopping · Resale prices · Google Trends interest by house · Top of the market · Auctions and fine wine · Gold and diamonds · Prediction markets: macro odds · China demand
1. Tourism and tax free shopping
Japan is losing Chinese visitors fast, and Paris traffic is slightly down. Not a tailwind for luxury right now.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visitor arrivals to Japan, Sep 2026 | 3,103,700, −5.0% y/y | 21 Oct 2026 · JNTO (preliminary) | China −44.5% to 430,800, Korea +25.6%. Japan's tourist shopping boom is fading where luxury cares most. |
| Visitor arrivals to Japan, Jan to Sep 2026 | 30,730,200, −2.9% y/y | 21 Oct 2026 · JNTO (preliminary) | Still above 30 million, but shrinking for the first time since the reopening. |
| Paris Aéroport passengers, Sep 2026 | 9,081,392, −1.6% y/y | 15 Oct 2026 · Groupe ADP | CDG +1.5%, Orly −7.9%. Long haul is holding up better than the total. |
| Hainan offshore duty free sales, Jul to Aug 2026 | CNY 3.82bn, +4.1% y/y | Sep 2026 · Haikou Customs via Moodie Davitt | Small growth after a long slump. China's domestic luxury channel has stopped shrinking, not more. |
| Global Blue tax free issued sales, latest month | not yet verified | Global Blue | Global Blue no longer publishes the monthly update we used to cite. Looking for a replacement. |
2. Resale prices
Secondhand Rolex prices are flat to slightly up on the year. No sign of a collapse in the watch resale market.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| WatchCharts Rolex Market Index | $27,891; −1.1% 1 month, +5.1% 1 year | 22 Oct 2026 · WatchCharts | Steady. The resale market is not signalling distress at the top of watches. |
| Hermès Birkin secondhand price index | not yet verified | No free public index we can check regularly yet. | |
| Chrono24 or other public watch index | not yet verified | To be added once we find a dated public series. |
3. Google Trends interest by house
Not yet verified. We will publish this only when we can export and archive the Google Trends series each week.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| LVMH, Hermès, Kering/Gucci, Richemont, Prada, Moncler search interest | not yet verified | Google Trends | Placeholder. No numbers until the export is archived. |
4. Top of the market
The very rich are still flying and ordering jets. Yacht order books are flat. The top end looks healthier than mainstream luxury.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global business jet departures, week 42 (12 to 18 Oct 2026) | 83,315, about −1% y/y | 22 Oct 2026 · WingX via Private Jet Card Comparisons | Year to date still +3.3%, but growth has stalled in recent weeks. |
| Gulfstream (General Dynamics Aerospace) book to bill, Q2 2026 (quarter to 5 Jul) | 1.5x on $5,278m orders | 29 Jul 2026 · General Dynamics Q2 2026 release | Q2 is the latest reported quarter; some sites label these Q2 figures as Q3. Q3 not yet captured. |
| Bombardier backlog and book to bill, Q2 2026 | not yet verified | Bombardier Q2 2026 release | The Bombardier release page blocked our check, so no number until confirmed at source. |
| Textron Aviation backlog, Q2 2026 | $8.0bn | 28 Jul 2026 · Textron Q2 2026 release | Textron Aviation backlog at the end of Q2 2026, per the company's release. Q3 results due 29 Oct. |
| Dassault Falcon backlog | not yet verified | To be added from the next Dassault Aviation release. | |
| Superyachts on order or in build (24m and up) | 1,093, from 1,138 in the 2025 count (−3.95%) | Jan 2026 issue, count as of 1 Sep 2025 · Boat International Global Order Book | Fewer hulls but bigger ones: average size up 8.7% in gross tonnage. A plateau, not a bust. |
| Ferretti order backlog, 30 Jun 2026 | €1,455m, +0.6% y/y | 31 Jul 2026 · Ferretti H1 2026 results | Flat backlog; net backlog down 25.7%, so new orders are slower. |
| Sanlorenzo new yacht revenue and backlog, H1 2026 | €471.3m revenue, +3.8%; order intake €496.4m, +18.3%; backlog €1,499m | 3 Sep 2026 · Sanlorenzo H1 2026 results | The large yacht end is still taking orders. |
| Brunswick net sales, Q2 2026 | not yet verified | Brunswick | Q3 results due 29 Oct; will add the verified figures then. |
| Boat shows (Monaco, Fort Lauderdale) | not yet verified | No audited attendance or sales figures published yet. | |
| Top end vs luxury goods demand | Comparison, not a number | This page and the Luxury Health Check | Jets and big yachts are growing or flat while group luxury sales grow about 1%. The richest clients are fine; the aspirational buyer is the problem. |
5. Auctions and fine wine
Christie's had its best first half in five years and fine wine prices are edging up. Collectors are back, selectively.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christie's auction sales, H1 2026 | $3.5bn, +71% y/y | 15 Jul 2026 · Christie's | Christie's calls it its best first half in five years. |
| Sotheby's total sales, H1 2026 | not yet verified | Sotheby's | Sotheby's press release page did not show the figures when opened, so no number until we can check it at source. |
| Liv-ex Fine Wine 100, monthly close | 326.31; +1.05% m/m, +2.13% YTD, +4.35% 1 year | 30 Sep 2026 · Liv-ex | Index level, not a price. Off the bottom, still 10.46% below five years ago. |
6. Gold and diamonds
Diamond prices are recovering from a low base. Gold price not yet verified at source.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| LBMA Gold Price PM | not yet verified | LBMA | LBMA price tables are now behind a licensed portal, so we could not confirm a fix at source. |
| Rapaport RAPI 1 carat, Sep 2026 | +0.3% m/m (second monthly rise) | 6 Oct 2026 · Rapaport | 0.30 carat index +15.1% YTD. Natural diamonds are firming as supply shrinks. |
7. Prediction markets: macro odds
What traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are paying for the macro calls that move luxury: recession, interest rates, tariffs, gold and stocks. These are market-implied odds (the price of a Yes contract), not forecasts of ours, and not inputs to the health score. Snapshot taken 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC. Markets with under about $10k of liquidity are skipped.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2026 (Kalshi, NBER call) | 3% market-implied (bid 3, ask 4) | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; 3.7m contracts traded · Kalshi KXRECSSNBER-26 | Traders see almost no chance of a 2026 US recession. Good for the aspirational US shopper. |
| US recession by end of 2026 (Polymarket) | 8% market-implied (bid 7, ask 9) | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $2.35m volume, $76k liquidity · Polymarket | Higher than Kalshi but still low. Both markets say the US consumer is not the problem. |
| US recession in 2027 (Kalshi) | 21% market-implied (bid 20, ask 21) | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; 0.74m contracts traded · Kalshi KXRECSSNBER-27 | The risk is priced for next year, not this one. |
| Fed decision, 28 Oct 2026 | Hold 95.5% (Polymarket), 94% (Kalshi); hike 25bp 4.5% / 6% | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $62.7m Polymarket volume; Kalshi 7.3m contracts on hold · Polymarket and Kalshi | No move expected this week. |
| Fed decision, 9 Dec 2026 | Hike 25bp 77.5% (Polymarket), 74% (Kalshi); hold 19.5% / 23% | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $4.6m Polymarket volume · Polymarket and Kalshi | Markets now price a December hike. Tighter money and a stronger dollar would weigh on US luxury demand and on euro reported sales. |
| ECB decision, October 2026 meeting | No change 98.1%; hike 25bp 1.5% | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $657k volume, $57k liquidity · Polymarket | No surprise priced for Frankfurt this month. |
| ECB decision, 17 Dec 2026 meeting | Hike 25bp 75%; no change 22% | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $38k volume, $21k liquidity (light) · Polymarket | A December hike is priced, but on light trading. Treat it as a hint, not a forecast. |
| US tariff rate on China, 31 Dec 2026 | 5 to 15% band 87.5%; 15 to 25% 8.5% | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $12k volume, $49k liquidity (light) · Polymarket | Traders expect the China tariff to stay low. Little trading, so weight it lightly. |
| New US trade deal with the European Union before 2027 | 5.5% market-implied (bid 3.7, ask 7.2) | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $13k volume, $16k liquidity (light) · Polymarket | Nobody expects a new EU deal this year. Current EU US terms are the base case for European houses selling in America. |
| Gold (GC futures) above $6,000 by end of December | 2.7% market-implied; below $3,500: 13% | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $1.35m volume on the $6,000 line · Polymarket | No blow off priced for gold. Jewellery input costs should stay where they are. |
| S&P 500 at 8,200 or higher by end of December | 21% market-implied; 6,200 or lower: 10% | 25 Oct 2026, 04:45 UTC; $27k and $75k volume on those lines · Polymarket | Mostly a sideways year end priced. The US wealth effect is steady, not booming. |
| China stimulus | not yet verified | No liquid Polymarket or Kalshi market on Chinese stimulus found. The People's Bank of China rate market had $10k liquidity, too thin to show. | |
| French budget passed by 31 Dec 2026 | not yet verified | Polymarket (thin, not shown) | Skipped: about $1k of liquidity, so the price means little. The Moody's or S&P France downgrade market was thin too ($2k). |
8. China demand
Our take: Macau gaming, Hainan duty free, Chinese trips to Japan and Swiss watch exports to China give an early read on the Chinese spender, but treat them with care: VIP and mass gambling swing with Beijing's policy, each series covers one place or one channel, and none leads or lags luxury sales consistently. Context only, not a health score input.
| Indicator | Latest | Date and source | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macau gross gaming revenue, Sep 2026 | MOP 18,063m, −1.2% y/y | Sep 2026 data · DICJ monthly gross revenue | Fourth straight monthly decline, after growth through May. The Chinese visitor is still coming, spending a little less. |
| Macau gross gaming revenue, Jan to Sep 2026 | MOP 187,116m, +3.2% y/y | Sep 2026 data · DICJ monthly gross revenue | Growth has slowed from +13.9% after February. |
| Macau gross gaming revenue, last 12 months (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026) | MOP 253,178m, +6.0% y/y | Sum of DICJ monthly figures · DICJ 2025 and 2026 tables | Our sum of the twelve monthly DICJ figures, compared with the same twelve months a year earlier. |
| Chinese visitor arrivals to Japan, Sep 2026 | 430,800, −44.5% y/y | 21 Oct 2026 · JNTO (preliminary) | Jan to Sep 3,335,500, −55.5%. The Japan shopping trip has largely gone for Chinese travellers. |
| Swiss watch exports to China, Sep 2026 | CHF 130.1m, −14.2% y/y | Sep 2026 data · FH, from Swiss customs data | FH blames a tough base after August's rise. China is now only 5.8% of exports. |
| Hainan offshore duty free, Mid Autumn holiday 25 to 27 Sep 2026 | CNY 231m | 30 Sep 2026 · Haikou Commerce Bureau, citing Haikou Customs | No year on year figure published, so no trend can be read from it. |
| Hainan offshore duty free, Jul to Aug 2026 | not yet verified | Reported as CNY 3.82bn, +4.1%, but the Haikou Customs release would not load for us, so it stays unverified here. |
How these relate to the houses: Japan and Paris tourism matter most for LVMH and Hermès; gold, diamonds and watch resale for Richemont; the top of the market for every house. All indicators as CSV · Data hub