A monthly read on the luxury industry
What's really happening inside luxury, once a month.
One analyst grade report a month on LVMH, Hermès, Kering, Richemont, Chanel, Prada and the rest. The quarter's numbers, the shifts by region and by category, what the share prices are pricing in, and a clear verdict at the end.
For investors, analysts and people who work in the industry and want the signal without the press releases.
In the first edition
Not a stagnation. A split.
The luxury industry isn't stagnating. It's splitting in two. Jewellery, eyewear and the quiet, logo free end of the market are still growing. Logo leather goods, the bags that built the last boom, are going backwards.
The half that's shrinking happens to be the half that pays the bills at Europe's biggest groups. That's a margin problem dressed up as a demand problem, and the October edition sets out who wins the next cycle and what the market still hasn't priced.
- +13.5%Brunello Cucinelli's third quarter growth at constant currency
- −5%LVMH Fashion & Leather Goods, organic, in the third quarter
- +7% to −5%LVMH in Asia excluding Japan, from the first quarter to the third
- 34.1% vs 15.9%LVMH's first half margins in leather against watches and jewellery
- −6%Citi's US luxury card spending in September, a third monthly fall
- 16xLVMH's forward earnings multiple, the lowest in more than a decade
“You can grow your sales and still shrink your earnings.”
The Luxury Thread, October 2026
Every month
The whole industry, in one read.
The groups
LVMH, Hermès, Kering, Richemont, Chanel, Prada, Moncler, Cucinelli and EssilorLuxottica, quarter by quarter.
The regions
China and Hainan, the United States, Europe, Japan and the Middle East, and who is actually buying.
The categories
Leather goods, jewellery, watches, eyewear, beauty, wine and spirits, and where the growth moved.
Pricing
Who is still raising prices, who has stopped, and what it does to volume and desirability.
Valuation
What the share prices are pricing in, and where the market is failing to tell the winners from the losers.
What to watch
The results, data releases and deadlines that matter in the month ahead.
Why read it
A view, not a summary.
Thesis first. Every edition opens with the call and ends with a verdict, so you know where we stand and can check it later.
Numbers that are dated and sourced. Company releases, earnings calls, export statistics and card data, read and compared like for like.
What changed since last month. From the second edition on, every number and every view that moved, and why.
No noise. One email a month, written to be read in twenty minutes.
Between editions, @ArnaultTracker follows Bernard Arnault, LVMH and the rest of the luxury industry on X.
Follow @ArnaultTracker on XGet the next edition in your inbox.
Free, once a month. Read past editions on Substack.